Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 196.720531 233.938660 278.399278 336.054868 409.771993 502.155910 6.287777e+02
2025-09-28 149.253028 192.492546 249.990897 334.112671 457.723360 639.005875 9.378983e+02
2025-10-05 130.145627 178.588072 248.636543 361.753696 549.136379 866.437901 1.494165e+03
2025-10-12 116.031405 167.116555 246.076814 384.408454 638.505630 1128.914478 2.288532e+03
2025-10-19 104.506741 156.549849 241.533521 401.095851 722.192986 1421.856431 3.397889e+03
2025-10-26 94.363288 145.995057 234.253742 410.072862 793.598474 1728.513984 4.877837e+03
2025-11-02 85.328777 135.615671 224.950869 412.220899 851.002056 2037.496266 6.796829e+03
2025-11-09 76.505121 124.199283 211.567207 402.445036 877.091038 2280.816260 8.895809e+03
2025-11-16 69.178411 114.419008 199.574685 392.672888 899.850773 2533.198887 1.159611e+04
2025-11-23 62.902062 105.749649 188.354774 382.003068 916.650861 2782.253421 1.497740e+04
2025-11-30 61.341267 105.702421 194.405142 413.355668 1067.786166 3675.831359 2.661375e+04
2025-12-07 57.585311 100.918665 189.774867 417.188982 1136.908382 4307.088927 4.004623e+04
2025-12-14 54.714272 97.731333 188.501163 430.735351 1251.021128 5339.684200 7.028910e+04
2025-12-21 51.031573 92.484635 181.895511 428.395553 1309.341616 6175.929998 1.129566e+05
2025-12-28 50.212605 93.071518 188.744262 466.522344 1550.668925 8701.722611 3.139380e+05
2026-01-04 48.941386 92.523573 192.813648 497.929005 1790.748453 11968.544265 1.046098e+06
2026-01-11 47.294464 90.947058 194.093200 521.163869 2014.985219 15990.762980 4.672249e+06
2026-01-18 45.278563 88.311263 192.267627 533.699301 2198.541586 20481.648806 3.443189e+07
2026-01-25 43.042618 84.935467 188.012733 536.702642 2335.330029 25191.622188 1.022175e+09
2026-02-01 40.369026 80.289454 179.743421 523.047491 2364.744362 28403.385819 NaN
2026-02-08 37.939741 76.008235 171.947709 509.428428 2388.413128 31897.964226 NaN
2026-02-15 35.684083 71.949567 164.283088 494.594193 2396.507123 35364.299197 NaN
2026-02-22 35.536316 72.932906 170.884982 538.289786 2869.024429 57750.691858 NaN